Module Information

The first part of the course deals with the dual but distinct problems of summarising and interpreting data and providing mathematical models for situations where there is inherent uncertainty. The latter requires material on properties of standard probability distributions. The concepts and rules are generously illustrated with examples from business or administrative contexts. The remaining part of the course is concerned with statistical inference. Here the basic ideas and elements are introduced and applied to a variety of contexts including applications to quality control.
The module will make substantial use of a statistical package for some of the calculations.

1. Summarising Data. Types of data. Frequency tables, pie and barcharts; descriptive statistics, histograms, stem and leaf, box and whisker plots. Comparing data sets. X-Y scatter plots, correlation.
2. Probability. Elementary rules, symmetric situations, combinatorics, sampling with and without replacement. Applications.
3. Conditional Probability and Tree Diagrams. The chain rule, Bayes Rule. Applications. Expected value; decision making.
4. Probability Distributions. Binomial and Poisson, applications in modelling, 'rare event' model for the Poisson. Mean, variance and standard deviation, basic properties. Normal distribution, density function, use of Statistical Tables. Applications. Central Limit Theorem, approximation of the Binomial and Poisson distributions by the Normal distribution.
5. Confidence intervals. Single Normal random sample, distribution of the sample mean, confidence levels, confidence interval for the mean, with variance both known and unknown. Matched pairs. Large sample interval for the Binomial and the Poisson.
6. Hypothesis Testing. Examples for Normal, Binomial and Poisson data. Simple and composite hypotheses, critical (rejection) region, type I and II errors, P-value, significance level, power function, formulation of problems. Control charts and quality control.
7. Regression. Linear regression of y on x. Least squares estimates, the correlation coefficient, the fitted line, tests on slope and intercept, prediction.