|Delivery Type||Delivery length / details|
|Lecture||20 Hours. (20 x 1-hour lectures per week)|
|Practical||4 Hours. (4 computing practicals)|
|Other||8 Hours. (8 x 1-hours example classes, plus tutorials as required)|
|Assessment Type||Assessment length / details||Proportion|
|Semester Assessment||2 Hours (open book, in class test)||30%|
|Semester Exam||2 Hours (written examination)||70%|
|Supplementary Exam||2 Hours [If open book test passed (50% or more), mark is carried forward with weighting 30% and supplementary exam wil contribute 70%. If open book test failed, supplementary exam will be 100%.]||100%|
On completion of this module, a student should be able to
- identify common types of data; summarise and interpret them in business contexts.
- calculate probabilities and conditional probabilities in a variety of situations.
- select an appropriate probability distribution for common types of data; find relevant probabilities using tables, calculator or computer package.
- calculate the mean, variance and standard deviation of multiples and sums of independent random variables.
- calculate confidence intervals for single random samples and paired data.
- formulate, carry out and interpret tests of hypotheses in common business contexts.
- use a computer package to carry out simple data analyses, including the construction of control charts, and interpret the output.
- use a computer package to estimate a linear relationship between two or more variables, interpret the fitted model and use it for prediction.
The module will make substantial use of a statistical package for some of the calculations.
To introduce students to basic methods for summarising and interpreting data. To provide an understanding of, and working facility in, probability and statistical inference. To illustrate the uses of probability and statistics in solving business problems.
2. Probability. Elementary rules, symmetric situations, combinatorics, sampling with and without replacement. Applications.
3. Conditional Probability and Tree Diagrams. The chain rule, Bayes Rule. Applications. Expected value; decision making.
4. Probability Distributions. Binomial and Poisson, applications in modelling, 'rare event' model for the Poisson. Mean, variance and standard deviation, basic properties. Normal distribution, density function, use of Statistical Tables. Applications. Central Limit Theorem, approximation of the Binomial and Poisson distributions by the Normal distribution.
5. Confidence intervals. Single Normal random sample, distribution of the sample mean, confidence levels, confidence interval for the mean, with variance both known and unknown. Matched pairs. Large sample interval for the Binomial and the Poisson.
6. Hypothesis Testing. Examples for Normal, Binomial and Poisson data. Simple and composite hypotheses, critical (rejection) region, type I and II errors, P-value, significance level, power function, formulation of problems. Control charts and quality control.
7. Regression. Linear regression of y on x. Least squares estimates, the correlation coefficient, the fitted line, tests on slope and intercept, prediction.
Reading ListRecommended Text
J Curwin and R Slater (2000) Improve your maths, a refresher course Thomson Learning Primo search J Curwin and R Slater (2001) Quantitative Methods for Business Decisions 5th edition Thomson Learning Primo search M C Fleming and J G Nellis (2000) Principles of Applied Statistics 2nd edition Thomas Learning Primo search Swift, Louise. (2005.) Quantitative methods for business, management, and finance /Louise Swift and Sally Piff. Palgrave Macmillan Primo search Supplementary Text
Curwin, J. (Aug. 2007) Quantitative Methods:Short Course Thomson Learning EMEA, Limited Primo search Newbold, P (1984) Statistics for Business & Economics Prentice Hall Primo search Ryan, Barbara (May 2006) Minitab Student Version 14 for Windows + Minitab Handbook Thomson Delmar Learning Primo search Weiss, N A (1997) Introductory Statistics 4th Addison Wesley Primo search Recommended Background
Moore, DS, McCabe,GP, Duckworth,WM and Sclove, SL (2003) The Practice of Business Statistics W H Freeman Primo search
This module is at CQFW Level 7