New Senedd voting system poorly understood by public, study reveals

The Senedd in Cardiff Bay

Two-thirds of people in Wales are unclear about major changes to the Senedd voting system ahead of the upcoming election, according to new public polling.

Led by researchers from Aberystwyth University and Swansea University, the initial findings of the Welsh Election Study 2026 are part of the first wave of data exploring political knowledge, trust in government, political interest and engagement in Wales ahead of the Senedd election on 7 May.

Based on survey responses from 10,000 people in Wales, two-thirds were unable to correctly answer questions about the expansion of the Senedd, the creation of new constituencies and how the electoral system will work. 

88% of respondents were either incorrect or did not know about the new closed list electoral system, with just under 12% understanding it. 

Despite most people reporting being fairly or very interested in politics across different political arenas – including 59% interested in the forthcoming Senedd election – the research revealed inconsistent levels of understanding of Welsh and UK Government responsibilities. 

Around half of respondents were either incorrect or unaware that the Senedd controls the NHS, agriculture and economic development, and only 40% of people knew that the UK Government retains powers over policing. 

The polling reveals a generational knowledge gap, with younger respondents less well-informed about which level of government is responsible for each policy area. Only 28% of respondents aged 16–25 knew that the Welsh Government is responsible for the NHS, compared with 62.7% of respondents aged 65 and over. 

The major survey also reveals a lack of trust in the UK Government, with over two-thirds reporting limited or no trust. While trust in the Welsh Government was a little better, almost half of respondents still reported mistrust.

Most respondents felt unable to influence political decisions, with over 60% feel they have no influence over UK Government decisions, compared with 52% for decisions affecting Wales, and just over 40% at the local level.

When asked to describe the upcoming Senedd election in one word, an overwhelming 83% of respondents expressed negative emotions, while only 17% had positive ones – the most common themes were disappointment, frustration and worry.

Dr Anwen Elias from Aberystwyth University, who authored the analysis of the results and co-leads the study, said:

“These findings provide an important insight into how people in Wales understand and engage with politics at a crucial moment ahead of the Senedd election. They highlight gaps in awareness of major electoral reforms and raise important questions about democratic participation, trust in government, and how well-informed people feel when making political decisions.

“Overall, these findings suggest a Welsh electorate that is generally interested in politics, including the upcoming Senedd election. However, understanding of how democracy works in Wales is mixed, and knowledge of the electoral reforms in place for the next election is limited.”

“Knowledge of the electoral reforms that are coming into place for the Senedd election is generally very low. Within this low knowledge base, there is slightly more awareness of the number of Senedd members that will be elected and that under the new electoral system each voter will be able to cast only one vote. There is relatively less knowledge of the number of MSs representing each constituency, and even less of the operation of the closed list system of proportional representation with barely over one in ten understanding it.”

Dr Bettina Petersohn from Swansea University added:

"The findings tell us something interesting about the people in Wales and their attitudes towards Welsh politics. The responses show that people have generally positive attitudes towards key democratic processes in Wales, are interested in the upcoming election, with a majority thinking that it makes a difference who will win the Senedd election. At the same time, the level of knowledge about the new electoral system was low at the start of the electoral campaign. Overall, people also expressed the feeling of not having much influence over decisions made for the UK, but also for Wales or the local area."

The findings are presented in the briefing paper ‘A Snapshot of Democracy and Society in Wales: Initial Findings from the Welsh Election Study, April 2026’, which explores key aspects of democracy and society in Wales.

The Welsh Election Study 2026 is a four-year research project funded by the UKRI Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). 

The collaboration brings together Dr Anwen Elias (Aberystwyth University), Professor Matt Wall, Dr Bettina Petersohn and Dr Mohsin Hussain (Swansea University), working in partnership with the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data (WISERD), as part of the ESRC’s investment in data infrastructure for electoral research.

The findings are based on a representative probability sample of 10,001 adults aged 16+ in Wales who were surveyed between 26 February and 7 April 2026 by Ipsos UK.

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