1989 - Dr. Martin Holdgate, CB - The Environment of Tomorrow’s World

In this lecture Dr. Martin Holdgate discussed the potential changes that will occur in the global environment as of 2030. He focused on what he called ‘unstoppable trends,’ or those trends which are caused by a large number of people through innumerable small actions which themselves cannot be seen a detrimental and which have substantial lags between cause and effect. The population boom was the first, a tribute to modern medicine. In some areas nutrition will limit this growth because water supplies are inadequate or the soil becomes over-exploited. Populations in these situations are likely to migrate, threatening the stability of some nations. The second unstoppable trend was cited as the deforestation through increased agricultural demand - although not all deforestation causes environmental disaster as conservation efforts can create sustainable patterns of development. The third unstoppable trend was desertification or land degradation - though once again recent advances in science help negate such problems. Fourth, a continuing loss of biodiversity that even with conservation efforts, is likely to continue. Fifth, Urban discussed the problem of pollution, especially given some of the long-term damage already done to the environment. Lastly climate change was cited as having potentially catastrophic effects, especially to those living in coastal zones. It was suggested that the solution to these problems lie in politics, as recent experience has shown that science and technology are likely not to be the limiting factors. Still, we need to continue to share scientific knowledge, help developing countries evaluate environmental trends, take steps to reduce CFCs and greenhouse gases and transfer environmentally-friendly technologies to the developing world.